Produced by a tournament of forecasting models judged on real out-of-sample accuracy — the figure below is the deployed model’s current read, refreshed automatically as official data and news arrive.
Latest official
4.33%
2026 Q1
Nowcast
4.36%
2026 Q2
Typical accuracy
±0.09%
vs published actuals
Recent official figures (solid) and the current nowcast (dot) with its typical-error range. Every past forecast is kept on the books — see how the number is made.
In the full terminal
• Forecasts out to a year ahead (t+2…t+4)
• Probability of rising vs falling, with likely ranges