Nowcasting Macro

Live Nowcast2026 Q3 (no official figure yet)

United States Merchandise Imports Forecast

Produced by a tournament of forecasting models judged on real out-of-sample accuracy — the figure below is the deployed model’s current read, refreshed automatically as official data and news arrive.

Latest official
139.96
2026 Q2
Nowcast
140.82
2026 Q3
Typical accuracy
±7.00
vs published actuals
140.822023 Q32026 Q22026 Q3

Recent official figures (solid) and the current nowcast (dot) with its typical-error range. Every past forecast is kept on the books — see how the number is made.

What is the United States Merchandise Imports nowcast for 2026 Q3?

Nowcasting Macro's latest nowcast puts United States Merchandise Imports at 140.82 for 2026 Q3, against the most recent official figure of 139.96 for 2026 Q2.

That points to a rise of about 0.86 index points from the last print.

Imports of goods and services in volume terms — how much the economy buys from abroad, adjusted for prices.

Across our walk-forward backtest, the model deployed for this series has typically landed within ±7.00 of the published actual.

Over the past 4 quarters the series has risen from 134.27 (2025 Q2) to 139.96 (2026 Q2).

Higher = stronger domestic demand pulling in foreign goods, in real terms. Index levels are comparable across countries in growth terms (own 2015 = 100). For ASEAN economies the index tracks trade values (incl. price effects), not volumes.

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