Live Nowcast — 2026 Q2 (no official figure yet)
Produced by a tournament of forecasting models judged on real out-of-sample accuracy — the figure below is the deployed model’s current read, refreshed automatically as official data and news arrive.
Recent official figures (solid) and the current nowcast (dot) with its typical-error range. Every past forecast is kept on the books — see how the number is made.
Nowcasting Macro's latest nowcast puts United States Hourly Earnings, Manufacturing at 151.47 for 2026 Q2, against the most recent official figure of 149.79 for 2026 Q1.
That points to a rise of about 1.68 index points from the last print.
Hourly earnings in manufacturing — a wage-pressure gauge for the sector most exposed to trade.
Across our walk-forward backtest, the model deployed for this series has typically landed within ±0.62 of the published actual.
Over the past 4 quarters the series has risen from 144.34 (2025 Q1) to 149.79 (2026 Q1).
Rising faster than CPI = real wage growth. Feeds the wage-Phillips macro laws and the Wages news topic.
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