Live Nowcast — 2026 Q2 (no official figure yet)
Produced by a tournament of forecasting models judged on real out-of-sample accuracy — the figure below is the deployed model’s current read, refreshed automatically as official data and news arrive.
Recent official figures (solid) and the current nowcast (dot) with its typical-error range. Every past forecast is kept on the books — see how the number is made.
Nowcasting Macro's latest nowcast puts United States Merchandise Exports at 120.97 for 2026 Q2, against the most recent official figure of 120.76 for 2026 Q1.
That points to a rise of about 0.21 index points from the last print.
Exports of goods and services in volume terms — how much the economy sells abroad, adjusted for prices.
Across our walk-forward backtest, the model deployed for this series has typically landed within ±3.95 of the published actual.
Over the past 4 quarters the series has risen from 116.49 (2025 Q1) to 120.76 (2026 Q1).
Higher = stronger external demand in real terms. Index levels are comparable across countries in growth terms (each country's own 2015 = 100). For ASEAN economies the index tracks trade values (incl. price effects), not volumes.
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