Live Nowcast — 2026 Q2 (no official figure yet)
Produced by a tournament of forecasting models judged on real out-of-sample accuracy — the figure below is the deployed model’s current read, refreshed automatically as official data and news arrive.
Recent official figures (solid) and the current nowcast (dot) with its typical-error range. Every past forecast is kept on the books — see how the number is made.
Nowcasting Macro's latest nowcast puts Canada Unemployment Rate at 6.79% for 2026 Q2, against the most recent official figure of 6.65% for 2026 Q1.
That points to a rise of about 0.14 percentage points from the last print.
Share of the labour force that is out of work and actively looking for a job (labour-force-survey definition).
Across our walk-forward backtest, the model deployed for this series has typically landed within ±0.10% of the published actual.
Over the past 4 quarters the series has eased from 6.72% (2025 Q1) to 6.65% (2026 Q1).
Lower is better. Survey-based, so it publishes with a longer lag than most monthly indicators.
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