Live Nowcast — 2026 Q2 (no official figure yet)
Produced by a tournament of forecasting models judged on real out-of-sample accuracy — the figure below is the deployed model’s current read, refreshed automatically as official data and news arrive.
Recent official figures (solid) and the current nowcast (dot) with its typical-error range. Every past forecast is kept on the books — see how the number is made.
Nowcasting Macro's latest nowcast puts Canada Retail Trade Volume Index at 128.13 for 2026 Q2, against the most recent official figure of 129.20 for 2026 Q1.
That points to a decline of about 1.07 index points from the last print.
Retail Trade Volume Index: inflation-adjusted retail sales — a direct read on household spending.
Across our walk-forward backtest, the model deployed for this series has typically landed within ±1.87 of the published actual.
Over the past 4 quarters the series has risen from 128.00 (2025 Q1) to 129.20 (2026 Q1).
Higher = households buying more in real terms. Deflated, so it moves independently of CPI.
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