Live Nowcast — 2026 Q2 (no official figure yet)
Produced by a tournament of forecasting models judged on real out-of-sample accuracy — the figure below is the deployed model’s current read, refreshed automatically as official data and news arrive.
Recent official figures (solid) and the current nowcast (dot) with its typical-error range. Every past forecast is kept on the books — see how the number is made.
Nowcasting Macro's latest nowcast puts Germany Business Confidence (Harmonised) at 99.22 for 2026 Q2, against the most recent official figure of 99.02 for 2026 Q1.
That points to a rise of about 0.20 index points from the last print.
OECD harmonised business-confidence indicator: firms' assessment of production, orders and stocks.
Across our walk-forward backtest, the model deployed for this series has typically landed within ±0.06 of the published actual.
Over the past 4 quarters the series has risen from 98.22 (2025 Q1) to 99.02 (2026 Q1).
Above 100 = firms more upbeat than the long-run norm. A leading signal for industrial production and GDP.
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