Live Nowcast — 2026 Q2 (no official figure yet)
Produced by a tournament of forecasting models judged on real out-of-sample accuracy — the figure below is the deployed model’s current read, refreshed automatically as official data and news arrive.
Recent official figures (solid) and the current nowcast (dot) with its typical-error range. Every past forecast is kept on the books — see how the number is made.
Nowcasting Macro's latest nowcast puts United Kingdom Production Volume Index at 98.77 for 2026 Q2, against the most recent official figure of 98.96 for 2026 Q1.
That points to a decline of about 0.19 index points from the last print.
Production Volume Index: the physical output of mining, manufacturing and utilities.
Across our walk-forward backtest, the model deployed for this series has typically landed within ±1.17 of the published actual.
Over the past 4 quarters the series has eased from 98.99 (2025 Q1) to 98.96 (2026 Q1).
Higher = more output. Volatile month to month; the quarterly mean smooths single-month noise.
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