Live Nowcast — 2026 Q2 (no official figure yet)
Produced by a tournament of forecasting models judged on real out-of-sample accuracy — the figure below is the deployed model’s current read, refreshed automatically as official data and news arrive.
Recent official figures (solid) and the current nowcast (dot) with its typical-error range. Every past forecast is kept on the books — see how the number is made.
Nowcasting Macro's latest nowcast puts China Long-Term Interest Rate at 1.75% for 2026 Q2, against the most recent official figure of 1.80% for 2026 Q1.
That points to a decline of about 0.05 percentage points from the last print.
Yield on 10-year government bonds — the market price of long-term government borrowing.
Across our walk-forward backtest, the model deployed for this series has typically landed within ±0.06% of the published actual.
Over the past 4 quarters the series has risen from 1.72% (2025 Q1) to 1.80% (2026 Q1).
Rises with inflation expectations and fiscal risk. A falling forecast is coded as good news in the sentiment layer.
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